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Industry and trade in goods up on strong consumer demand: McKinsey

The global economy rounded out 2021 in a strong position and economic performance accelerated despite pandemic restrictions, McKinsey’s latest Global Economics Intelligence Executive Summary says. 

Trade in goods grew and manufacturing and services followed suit in most economies surveyed by Mckinsey. On global growth overall for 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 5.9% increase. 

Of the major economies, the US had a very strong fourth quarter, its GDP expanded at a rate of 6.9% and annual GDP growth estimated at 5.7%. China meanwhile expanded its economy by 8.1% in 2021. In the eurozone GDP growth is expected to reach 5.2% (OECD). Estimates of GDP growth for India’s fiscal year, which extends through March of 2022, are about 9.0% according to the International Monetary Fund. 

Depending  on how inflation control measures go, economic momentum from 2021 could carry over into 2022 McKinsey says. Executive respondents to an executive survey issued by the consultancy in December suggest positive economic conditions are ahead this year. 

“Most expect better economic conditions despite heightened risks from the pandemic and inflation. Given that economies are expected to shift away from stimulus spending and other policy supports, forecasters and economists generally project a slower pace for global growth in 2022—but one that is still faster than pre-pandemic levels,” McKinsey says. 

McKinsey estimates growth ranges from 4.5% (OECD) to 4.1% (World Bank, IMF). These are rates of growth not seen since 2010, the bounce-back year after the global financial crisis.

In several economies, McKinsey says the purchasing managers’ indexes for manufacturing are measuring historically high rates of expansion. 

Read McKinsey’s Global Economics Intelligence Executive Summary. 

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