The signing of a US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has sparked optimism across global markets, with many anticipating lower energy prices, reduced freight costs and improved trade flows after nearly four months of disruption and uncertainty.
For procurement teams, the biggest risk may be assuming that the crisis is already over when, in reality, it could take weeks or months for shipping patterns, insurer confidence and port operations to return to anything resembling pre-war normality.
The MOU, a 14-point interim framework between Washington and Tehran, was finalised last week after a staged signing process involving senior US and Iranian officials.
Some tanker traffic has since resumed, although well below pre-conflict volumes, and at least one maritime industry advisory has lowered its threat assessment for the Strait of Hormuz to ‘moderate’ for the first time since the war began in late February.
However, the reopening remains gradual rather than immediate, with mine risks still present and maritime security sources estimating that clearance and confidence-building could take 40 to 50 days.
According to Karin Strom, VP at Proxima (part of Bain & Company), the MOU represents a significant development, but not a definitive resolution.
“The United States and Iran are expected to sign a Memorandum of Understanding that, on paper, marks a breakthrough,” Strom said prior to the signing.
“At its centre sits the most critical artery of global shipping, the Strait of Hormuz.”
This strategic waterway remains one of the world’s most important trade chokepoints, carrying approximately a fifth of global oil flows and a significant share of LNG exports before the crisis began.
Any sustained return to normal shipping operations would have far-reaching implications for manufacturers, importers, retailers and logistics providers around the world. However, Strom cautions that public expectations may be running ahead of reality.
“Public statements suggest the strait will be effectively ‘open’ from the moment the deal is signed. In practice, implementation is conditional and dependent on events that have yet to unfold,” she said.
The agreement triggers a 60-day implementation period covering temporary waivers permitting Iranian oil sales and related services, the release of frozen Iranian assets and progress towards a broader nuclear agreement.
Crucially, the MOU says Iran will use its ‘best efforts’ to ensure safe passage of commercial vessels for an initial 60-day period, with longer-term arrangements for the strait still to be negotiated.
That uncertainty was underscored over the weekend, when Washington and Tehran offered conflicting accounts of the waterway’s operating status.
While Iran said Hormuz closed again in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, the US publicly disputed that claim, insisting traffic was still flowing and that American forces were monitoring the waterway to keep it open.
Shipping data has since shown that vessels are continuing to transit via both the southern Omani route and the northern Iranian-controlled route, albeit in reduced numbers and under elevated risk.
“In short, the reopening of Hormuz is conditional on a wider regional cooling that remains far from guaranteed,” Strom said.
While financial markets may react quickly to positive headlines, supply chains rarely move at the same speed.
Industry data already shows that early ship movements through the strait remain limited and fall well short of pre-conflict traffic levels, with operators, charterers and insurers still acting with caution.
As Strom notes, “the promise of access through Hormuz is only meaningful if it is durable.”
A formal agreement that is later undermined by fresh instability could do little for reassurance, potentially limiting any immediate supply chain benefits.
However, that doesn’t mean organisations should wait on the sidelines. In fact, the current period may present one of the most important strategic planning windows seen in recent years, according to Strom.
“There is, undeniably, an opportunity here,” she said.
“If delivered, the agreement could ease one of the most persistent pressure points in global energy supply and open the door to broader diplomatic progress.”
In this case, procurement teams that have already mapped their exposure and prepared sourcing strategies will be best placed to capture value.
Strom believes the first benefits would likely emerge through lower pressure on energy, freight and insurance costs.
“If the reopening holds, the first benefit is likely to be lower pressure on oil, LNG, freight and insurance costs,” she said.
“That helps importers, manufacturers, airlines, logistics firms and any industry with heavy fuel exposure.”
However, she also warns that procurement teams should not expect immediate savings.
“The pass-through to real supply chains is rarely immediate: inventory cycles, shipping delays, refining lead times and contract lags mean the operational impact can take weeks or longer.”
Organisations that dismantle contingency measures too early may find themselves exposed if anticipated savings fail to materialise.
“For supply chains, that means costs may come down slower than headlines suggest, and routing decisions may remain conservative even after a formal reopening,” Strom said.
“Especially packaging, feedstocks and fertilisers can take a while to come down, so emergency measures need to be kept in place for a bit longer.”
The challenge is therefore one of balance. Business continuity plans, dual-sourcing arrangements and supplier risk monitoring should all remain in place, while preparations begin for potential improvements in market conditions.
That preparation should start now, according to Strom. Procurement teams should identify which sourcing events could be accelerated if freight, energy and commodity markets begin to soften.
When conditions do eventually stabilise, organisations that are ready to act may have only a brief window to secure the greatest benefits.
“With the positive signs, it is, however, time to review which tenders companies want to take out to market quickly once we confirm that the Strait is truly open,” Strom said.
“The early bird will catch the worm, and being ready to go quickly when the market really turns will drive real benefits.”
