The ongoing Middle East conflict and shifting carrier strategies are combining to create volatility in global container shipping markets, with procurement leaders facing the prospect of hefty cost increases in the lead-up to the peak Christmas period.
According to The Australian, recent reports indicate that the average cost of a standard 40-foot shipping container has already increased significantly.
One of the most closely watched indicators, the Drewry World Container Index, has risen by around 14.4 percent to approximately US$2,172 (approximately AU$3,142) per standard container.
This comes as we approach a time of year that usually offers shippers some breathing space. The June quarter is typically characterised by softer demand and relatively stable pricing, providing a chance to secure capacity at predictable rates.
However, current market signals suggest that this seasonal plateau may be short-lived in 2026, with experts warning that the market has been “flipped on its head”.
According to the Freight and Trade Alliance (FTA), prices may increase considerably into August, when exporters begin ramping up activity in preparation for retail demand at the end of the year.
This cyclical surge, driven by inventory build-up ahead of Christmas, is now expected to coincide with external pressures that could amplify rate increases beyond typical seasonal patterns.
Tom Jensen, policy and operations lead at the FTA, told The Australian that while the first quarter of the year is generally more active, due in part to pre-Chinese New Year shipping demand, the second quarter typically delivers pricing stability.
However, as the war drags on, he warns that prices could start to soar between April and June, with some shipping lines deliberately reducing container availability and supplies.
“Now in the scenario we are in because of the Middle East crisis, shipping lines are now taking advantage of that, given that they were supposed to have a lean year because of a lot of new vessels coming online and the Red Sea was easing up a little,” Jensen told the publication.
“Now that the Middle East crisis has happened, all of this has been flipped on its head, so we are expecting rates to continually increase.
“They tend to do that quite a bit…(withdraw supply to increase prices) even in quiet times.”
This practice, commonly referred to as “blank sailings”, involves cancelling or skipping scheduled departures to better align supply with demand and, in some cases, to support higher freight rates, as observed in recent data on Australian shipping schedules.
Of 159 planned sailings, 19 have recently been cancelled, representing an 11.9 percent blank sailing rate. This marks a notable increase from the 9.5 percent recorded during the Lunar New Year period.
“That’s their game, even in quiet times, depending on demand, they will always manipulate it into their favour to make sure they are maximising their revenue as much as possible, and so we are seeing the percentage of blank (cancelled or skipped) sailings start to increase,” added Jensen.
These developments underscore the importance of proactive freight strategy and supplier engagement.
