Philip Chronican, chair of National Australia Bank (NAB), recently addressed the AICD Australian Governance Summit 2026 in Sydney, urging Australia to strengthen its supply chains and diversify its export markets.
Refering to a “new economic era”, Chronican said Australia is now in an “environment of greater volatility in inflation and growth”.
“Interest rates will remain higher than they have been for much of the past decade. At the same time, geopolitical forces are changing the global landscape,” he said.
“Trade fragmentation, conflicts, supply chain, energy security and strategic competition are all shaping economic outcomes alongside traditional drivers such as productivity and demographics.
“Geopolitical instability continues to present severe risks, as the war in the Middle East reminds us of how quickly conditions can change. The challenge that we face is to be more agile, more aware of new and emerging risks and opportunities, more adaptable and more cautious.”
Chronican pointed to Australia’s reliance on China, highlighting how China’s economic transition, policy settings and geopolitical position introduce greater uncertainty for Australia.
“One big risk for Australia in all of this is failing to diversify,” he said.
“Deloitte Access Economics research, commissioned by NAB, estimated that without building new, competitive export markets, Australia could forgo $270 billion in exports by 2050 as global demand shifts.
“Diversifying means broadening the range of what we export, moving further up the value chain, and positioning Australia to supply what the global economy will demand in the years ahead, not just what it has relied on in the past.”
Chronican said countries that adapt earlier will be better placed to compete, while those that do not risk seeing traditional export markets erode over time without new markets to leverage.
“Closely linked to this is supply chain resilience,” he said.
“The pandemic and rising geopolitical tensions showed how exposed economies can be when critical inputs or logistics are highly concentrated offshore, particularly where we might be dependent on counterparties with competing strategic visions.
“Resilience is now a strategic economic issue. Diversifying supply, building capability where it makes sense, and remaining a trusted global partner will help reduce concentration risk and strengthen our longterm resilience.”
Chronican also touched on AI, saying Australians have to adapt to new technologies and new risks.
“We need to see AI through the lens of past technological innovations,” he said.
“AI will enable us to move away from routine, repetitive tasks and free our people to focus on what matters most – building relationships and helping customers make confident decisions. But AI brings its own challenges.”
These challenges are highlighted in Kordia’s latest New Zealand Business Cyber Security report.
According to the leading provider of mission-critical technology solutions, staff AI misuse is now a key cyber risk for businesses, with almost a quarter (24 percent) of medium-to-large businesses ranking it among their biggest cyber challenges.
Individual staff members are copying confidential data into AI systems – information they would never put into Google – without understanding the risks and without guidance from their organisation, which is creating a “massive problem”, says Kordia.
Business leaders have reported it’s keeping them up at night, with nearly half (43 percent) saying employees accidentally exposing data or AI-driven processes is the biggest cyber risk to their business, making it the top concern by quite a margin.
Concluding his address, Chronican said Australia has faced moments of major economic transition before, but has succeeded when adapting, diversifying and investing for the long-term.
“The global environment is more uncertain. Old assumptions no longer hold. Concentration risk is rising. But Australia enters this new era from a position of strength,” he said.
“This calls for strong governance, and for governance policies and processes to be refreshed to fit a changing world.
“If we broaden our economic base, look beyond traditional exports, invest in productivity and capability, and preserve the social cohesion that underpins trust, Australia can continue to prosper, not despite global volatility – but because we are prepared for it.”
